Don't Mess With Taxes

Photo by Mike van Schoonderwalt

Leaders of the Republican-controlled Congress are finding that pushing through one comprehensive tax (and more) bill is not that easy, even with the support of the presidential bully pulpit.

The House version, christened the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) in keeping with Donald J. Trump’s not-so-subtle suggestion, narrowly passed the House on May 22. Yesterday, June 16, Senate tax writers released their version, which makes substantial changes to several key House provisions.

The differing bills already are sparking intra-party fighting.

And depending on what’s in the final version, the Republican party also could have a have a major public relations fight on its hands if the results of a recent public opinion poll hold.

Thumbs down on House bill: Americans are broadly skeptical of the GOP’s far-reaching budget and tax bill, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted June 2 through 8.

The Pew survey was before the Senate released its changes to the House bill. It’s possible those revisions, if eventually accepted in the final bill, might change some citizens’ minds. Or not.

Until the nonpartisan nonprofit data focused organization reexamines the latest tax bill iteration, here are some highlights of what those surveyed think about the House’s OBBB.

• Nearly half, 49 percent, oppose the legislation. Twenty-nine percent favor it. Another 21 percent are not sure.
• More than half, 54 percent, say the bill would have a mostly negative effect on the country in the coming years. Thirty percent say it would have a mostly positive effect. Another 12 percent think it would not have much of an impact.
• Most of those surveyed, 47 percent, also say that on a personal level, the bill would have a negative impact on them and their families. About a quarter. 24 percent, expect the bill’s impact to be positive, while 26 percent say it would not have much of an effect.
• Slightly more than half, 51 percent, expect the bill to increase the budget deficit. Just 18 percent of Americans say the bill would cut the deficit, and 27% say it would not have much of an effect.

Not surprisingly, Pew found that opinions about the legislation are deeply partisan, though there is substantially more opposition among Democrats than support among Republicans.

Support, or not, for tax changes: When asked about specific tax changes, some responses were more favorable.

About four-in-ten Americans, or 42 percent, favor extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s individual tax cuts , which are set to expire at the end of this year. A quarter are opposed, and a third are not sure.

Nearly four-in-ten, or 39 percent, support increasing the amount of state and local taxes (SALT) that are deductible from federal taxes. About three-in-ten each oppose the proposal or are not sure.

However, other tax changes weren’t greeted as warmly by the survey participants.

Forty-two percent are opposed to ending federal tax credits for electric vehicles, with 37 percent supporting ending the EV tax break. Twenty-one percent are not sure.

Even more, 50 percent, oppose the OBBB’s plan to end federal tax credits for companies that produce wind, solar, or nuclear power. Less than a third, or 29 percent, want to axe the clean energy tax benefits, while 21 percent are not sure.

Who the bill helps and hurts: Questions have been raised on Capitol Hill about the benefits of the House bill, and now the Senate version, going mostly to well-off individuals.

That take is shared by the general public, according to the Pew survey results.

Pew found that most Americans, or 55 percent, expect the bill would result in greater benefits for high-income people than for those in other income groups. Thirty-eight percent say it would help the wealthy a lot.

Only 11 percent say it would hurt high-income people, while 32 percent say it would neither help nor hurt them.

By contrast, 59 percent say the House OBBB would hurt lower-income people. Fifty-one percent think it would hurt middle-income Americans.

You can read the full analysis of the survey, and see more graphics, in How Americans view the GOP’s budget and tax bill by Pew Research Center researchers Andy Cerda and Andrew Daniller, both of whom focus on politics.

You also might find these items of interest:

• Senate releases tax bill that's at odds with House-passed version
• A look at some tax changes in GOP’s House-passed One Big Beautiful Bill

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