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Volatile polling and political leads

Not to OD on Republican presidential race data, but it is primary day in New Hampshire. 

An on the heels of the National Dialog Monitor comes a look at what polling volatility reveals, in the overall campaign and in today's voting.

Polling volatility_NYT 538 blog 011012Nate Silver, who crunches political numbers for his FiveThirtyEight blog at the New York Times, examines the GOP White House wannabes with the most volatile poll numbers.

It's no surprise that the candidates, both those still running and those who've bowed out, with the biggest poll spikes are the guys and gal who do or say the most outrageous things.

Silver and blog post co-author Micah Cohen also evaluate the candidates that have had the more stable numbers. This time around it's Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

The advantage of these two, at least in New Hampshire, say the FiveThirtyEight bloggers, is their physical campaign offices in the Granite State.

When the lone GOP challenger is finally determined, it will be interesting to see if the volatility diminishes in the national race or continues to spike.

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